The Mortgage Economic Review is a monthly summary of Key Economic Indicators, Data, and Events pertinent to Mortgage, Housing, and Finance Professionals.

 

Government Agencies that release Economic Data did a good job in January of publishing more delayed Economic Data, but they are still catching up. Consequently, Economic Data is improving but still delayed and spotty. Given the nature of data collection and analysis, expect frequent revisions over the next several months.

 

AT A GLANCE – Key Economic Events and Data released during January 2026

• Interest Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.26% (Jan 30) from 4.18% (Dec 31).
• Housing: Existing Home Sales rose 5.1% (+1.4% YoY), New Home Sales fell 0.1% (+18.7% YoY). Home Prices are up about 1.43% to 1.9% YoY.
• Labor: The US Economy created 50,000 New Jobs during December. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4%, and Wages are growing at 3.8% YoY.
• Inflation: December CPI rose 0.3% (+2.7% YoY), and November PCE rose 0.2% (+2.8% YoY).
• The Economy: US GDP grew at a 4.4% annualized rate in 3Q2025, up 2.3% YoY.
• Consumers: Retail Sales rose 0.6% in November (+3.3% YoY), and Consumer Confidence tumbled 10% in January.
• Stock Markets rose in January: Dow +1.7%, S&P +1.4%, Nasdaq +0.1%.
• Oil Prices jumped to $65/Barrel (Jan 30) from $57/Barrel (Dec 31).

 

Interest Rates and Fed Watch

There were 2 major Fed events in January. The January FOMC Meeting ended (as expected) with the Fed leaving Interest Rates unchanged. The Fed Funds Target Rate remains at 3.5%-4.0%. President Trump announced the appointment of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. His term will start May 15th, 2026. He will replace Jerome Powell, who has been Fed Chairman since 2018. Fed Watchers expect Warsh to be more “Dovish” on Monetary policy than Powell – meaning he will be more inclined to lower Interest Rates. However, even as Fed Chairman, he is only one vote on the FOMC Committee comprised of 12 voting members. Jerome Powell has the March and April FOMC Meetings to preside over until his term expires. Fed Watchers don’t expect any changes to Monetary Policy at those meetings.

• 10-Year T-Note Yield rose to 4.26% (Jan 30) from 4.18% (Dec 31).
• 30-Year T-Bond Yield rose to 4.87% (Jan 30) from 4.84% (Dec 31).
• 30-Year Mortgage fell to 6.10% (Jan 29) from 6.15% (Dec 31).
• 15-Year Mortgage rose to 5.49% (Jan 29) from 5.44% ( Dec 31).

 

Housing Market Data Released during January 2026

After a couple months of delay, we got a look at New Home Sales and Housing Starts in October 2025. The data didn’t contain anything noteworthy, which is further confirmation of a Housing Market limping along. New Home prices continued to fall through October, reflecting Builders constructing more affordable, lower-priced homes. The October data also indicates the Inventory of New Homes for sale is up. Single Family Starts and Completions also rose in 2025 through October.

• Existing Home Sales (closed deals in December) rose 5.1% to an annual rate of 4,350,000 homes (3,950,000 SFR + 400,000 Condos), up 1.4% in the last 12 months. The median Single Family Home price is $409,500, up 0.2% YoY. The Median Condo price is $364,400, up 0.2% YoY. There are 1,180,000 Homes for Sale, down from 1,430,000 in November, down 3.5% YoY.
• Pending Home Sales Index (signed contracts in December) fell 9.3%, down 3.0% YoY.
• New Home Sales (signed contracts in October) fell 0.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 737,000 Homes, up 18.7% YoY (683,000 New Homes were sold in 2024 and 668,000 in 2023). The median New Home price fell 3.3% to $392,300, up 1.9% YoY (Peak $496,800 Oct 2022). The average price rose 3.0% to $498,000, down 4.6% YoY (Peak $568,700 Dec 2022). There are approximately 488,000 New Homes for sale, up 1.7% YoY (Low of 281,000 in Oct 2020).
• Building Permits (issued in October fell 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000 units, down 1.1% YoY. Single-Family Permits fell 0.5% to an annual pace of 876,000 homes, down 9.4% YoY.
• Housing Starts (excavation began in October) fell 4.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000, down 7.8% YoY. Single-Family Starts rose 5.4% to 874,000 units, down 7.8% YoY.
• Housing Completions (completed in October) rose 1.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,386,000 units, down 15.3% YoY. Single-Family Completions rose 6.0% to an annual adjusted rate of 1,009,000 homes, up 2.0% YoY.
• S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index rose 0.4% in November, up 1.4% YoY.
• FHFA Home Price Index rose 0.6% in November and 0.4% in October, up 1.9% YoY.
• The NAHB Index fell 5.1% to 37 in January from 39 in December, down 21.3% YoY.

 

Labor Market Economic Data Released during January 2026

Despite healthy GDP Data for the 3rd quarter of 2025, the Economy managed to lose 67,000 jobs during that same time period. The Economy created 50,000 New Jobs in December, 56,000 in November, and lost 173,000 in October. (50 + 56 -173 = -67). These numbers were compiled during the Government Shutdown, so expect large revisions and erratic data in the next several months. Regardless of the erratic data, there is a definite softening in the Labor Market. Hospitality, Health Care, and Social Assistance added the most jobs. Retail Jobs fell significantly. Employment in construction, manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and professional service jobs was mostly unchanged. Interestingly, the Federal Government eliminated 277,000 jobs since January 2025.

• The Economy created 50,000 New Jobs in December and 56,000 in November, but lost 173,000 Jobs in October.
• The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.4% in December from 4.6% in November.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate fell to 62.4% in December from 62.5% in November.
• The Average Hourly Wage rose 0.3% in December, up 3.8% YoY.
• Job Openings fell to 7,146,000 in November from 7,449,000 in October, down 11.0% YoY. (In 2024, the average Job Openings was 7,800,000).

 

Inflation Economic Data Released during January 2026

The BLS and BEA are catching up and publishing delayed Inflation Data for October, November, and December. Inflation in the last quarter of 2025 was trending in the 2.5% to 3.0% range. The delayed data wasn’t much of a surprise, except for the December PPI, which came in at 0.5%. The unexpected uptick was due to a surge in Service Inflation. Regardless of the nuances of the delayed data, Inflation is stubbornly higher than desired. Consumers are growing weary of watching the price of everything march higher for the past 5 years, with no light at the end of the tunnel.

• CPI rose 0.3% in Dec, up 2.7% YoY          |  Core CPI rose 0.2%, up 2.6% YoY
• PPI rose 0.5% in Dec, up 3.0% YoY.         |  Core PPI rose 0.4% in Dec, up 3.5% YoY.
• PPI rose 0.2% in Nov.                              |  Core PPI rose 0.2% in Nov.
• PPI rose 0.1% in Oct.                              |  Core PPI rose 0.7% in Oct.
• PCE rose 0.2% in Nov, up 2.8% YoY.       |  Core PCE rose 0.2% in Nov, up 2.8% YoY.
• PCE rose 0.2% in Oct.                             |  Core PCE rose 0.2% in Oct.

 

GDP Economic Data Released during January 2026

Another stellar report for the Economy. The 2nd Estimate of 3rd Quarter GDP indicates the US Economy grew at a 4.4% rate in 3Q2025. What’s boosting the Economy? “Personal Consumption Expenditures” – a fancy name for Consumer Spending. Consumer Spending continues to bolster the US economy as it has for the past 15 years.

• US GDP rose to 4.4% in 3Q2025, up 2.3% YoY.
• Durable Goods Orders rose 5.3% in November, up 12.3% YoY.
• Capacity Utilization rose to 76.3% in December from 76.1% in November.
• Industrial Production rose 0.4% in December, up 2.0% YoY.

 

Consumer Economic Data Released during January 2026

Consumer Confidence plunged in January. Why is the Consumer so gloomy when the Economy is booming? Inflation fatigue. People have dealt with Inflation for 5 years. They are tired of watching prices continually go up, and now they are getting worried about making ends meet. On top of Inflation worries, people have to face the prospect of Artificial Intelligence taking their livelihood. Add a constant barrage of bad news in a 24-hour media cycle, and a dash of cabin fever because January was very cold. What do you get? A recipe for a depressed Consumer. At least the Stock Market is hovering at its highs.

• Retail Sales rose 0.6% in November, up 3.3% YoY.
• Consumer Confidence Index fell 10.3% in January to 84.5 from a revised 94.2 in December.   
• Consumer Sentiment rose 6.6% to 56.4 in January from 52.9 in December, down 21.3% YoY.

 

Energy, International, and Things You May Have Missed

• West Texas Intermediate Crude rose to $65/Barrel (Jan 30) from $57/Barrel (Dec 31).
• North Sea Brent Crude rose to $69/Barrel (Jan 30 ) from $61/Barrel (Dec 31).
• Gasoline (Wholesale Futures) rose to $1.92/Gal (Jan 30) from $1.71/Gal (Dec 31).
• Natural Gas rose $4.35/MMBtu (Jan 30) from $3.71/MMBtu (Dec 31).
• President Trump made 2 major Housing Announcements: A – Banning Institutional Investors from buying Single Family Homes, and B – instructed Fannie & Freddie to purchase an additional $200 Billion in MBS to help lower Mortgage Rates.
• US forces captured Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, and his wife. They were transported to New York and arraigned on drug and weapons charges.

 

The Mortgage Economic Review is a concise summary of Key Economic Data that influences the Mortgage and Housing Markets. It’s a quick read that keeps busy Professionals updated on important Economic Information. Feel free to share this with colleagues in the Mortgage, Housing, Finance, and Banking business. To have the Mortgage Economic Review emailed to you each month, click here.

 

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Mark Paoletti, MortgageElements.com

 

This Economic Review is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, financial, or mortgage advice. The information is gathered from sources believed to be credible and may be opinion-based and editorial in nature. Mortgage Elements Inc does not guarantee or warrant its accuracy or completeness, and there is no guarantee it is without errors. This newsletter is primarily intended for use by Housing and Finance Professionals, but it can be useful for anyone interested in Economics. This newsletter is not an advertisement to extend credit or solicit mortgage originations. © Copyright 2026 Mark Paoletti, Mortgage Elements Inc., All Rights Reserved.