The Mortgage Economic Review is a monthly summary of Key Economic Indicators, Data, and Events pertinent to Mortgage, Housing, and Finance Professionals.

 

We have another month of abbreviated Economic Data for November, even though the Government has reopened. Hopefully, next month we will get a complete set of Economic Data.

 

AT A GLANCE – Key Economic Events and Data released during November 2025

• Interest Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.02% (Nov 28) from 4.11% (Oct 31).
• Housing: Existing Home Sales rose 1.2% (+1.7% YoY), New Home Sales data was unavailable, Home Prices are up about 1.5% to 2.0% YoY.
• Labor: The US Economy created 119,000 New Jobs during September. The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% and Wages are growing at 3.8% YoY (October Data is still delayed).
• Inflation: CPI, PPI, and PCE Data for October were unavailable, but PPI data for September was published. PPI rose 0.3% in September (+2.7% YoY).
• The Economy: US GDP grew at a 3.9% annualized rate in 3Q2025 (according to GDPNOW).
• Consumers: Retail Sales rose 0.2% in September, and Consumer Confidence fell in November.
• Stock Markets were flat in November: the Dow rose 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.2%.
• Oil Prices fell to $59/Barrel (Nov 28) from $61/Barrel (Oct 31).

 

Interest Rates and Fed Watch

Interest Rates drifted sideways in November as the yield curve steepened (short-term declined slightly while the long end increased). The Financial Markets are fixated on the next FOMC Meeting on December 9th and 10th. The big question is: Will the Fed lower Interest Rates in December? Fed Watchers are divided on what the Fed will do. As of November 30, there is an 80/20 split with 80% of Fed Watchers expecting the Fed to lower Interest Rates by 1/4%. That would place the Fed Funds Target Range at 3.50% – 3.75%. Looking forward to 2026: Fed Watchers expect the Fed to pause additional Interest Rate cuts while they wait and see how the Economy, Inflation, and Unemployment respond.

• 10-Year T-Note Yield fell to 4.02% (Nov 28) from 4.11% (Oct 31).
• 30-Year T-Bond Yield unchanged at 4.67% (Nov 28) from 4.67% (Oct 31).
• 30-Year Mortgage rose to 6.23% (Nov 24) from 6.17% (Oct 27).
• 15-Year Mortgage rose to 5.51% (Nov 24) from 5.41% (Oct 27).

 

Housing Market Data Released during November 2025

Not much has changed in the Housing Market over the past several months. Existing Home Sales managed a slight gain of 1.2% in October. The Inventory of Homes for Sale continued to grow. We don’t know what the data is on New Homes due to the Government shutdown. The recent shutdown has exposed how dependent the Housing Industry is on Government Agencies to provide information. Next month, we will have to play catch-up on the data that was missing in October and November.

• Existing Home Sales (closed deals in October) rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4,100,000 homes (3,710,000 SFR + 390,000 Condos), up 1.7% in the last 12 months. The median Single Family Home price is $420,600, up 2.2% YoY. The Median Condo price is $363,700, up 0.9% YoY. Homes were on the market for an average of 34 days. Currently, 1,520,000 homes are for sale, up 10.9% YoY.
• Pending Home Sales Index (signed contracts in October) rose 1.9%, down 0.4% YoY.
• S&P/Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index rose 0.1% in September, up 1.4% YoY.
• FHFA Home Price Index rose 2.2% between the 4th quarter of 2024 and the 4th quarter of 2025.
• The NAHB Index rose 2.7% to 38 in November from 37 in October, down 17.4% YoY.
• New Home Sales (signed contracts in October) – Delayed.
• Building Permits (issued in October) – Delayed
• Housing Starts (excavation began in October) – Delayed
• Housing Completions (completed in October) – Delayed

 

Labor Market Economic Data Released during November 2025

The Bureau of Labor Statistics was able to release Employment data for September, but the October data is still delayed. The Economy added 119,000 new Jobs in September while the Unemployment Rate increased slightly to 4.4%. The Labor Market is slowly weakening. A weaker Labor Market is needed to help bring down Inflation. However, some Economists are worried it is weaker than the data indicates. Recent data shows that job gains were concentrated in Health Care, Social Assistance, Hospitality, and Construction. Job losses were in Manufacturing, Federal Government, Warehousing, and Tech. Alternative Data from the employment consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, shows that 153,000 layoffs occurred in October. We will have to wait to see if the BLS data next month reflects those job losses. Because of a dearth of data, we have a murky view of the Labor Market.    

• The Economy created 119,000 New Jobs during September.
• The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.4% during September from 4.3% in August.
• The Labor Force Participation Rate rose to 62.4% in September from 62.3% in August.
• The Average Hourly Wage rose 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August, up 3.8% YoY.
•  Job Openings rose to 7,227,000 in August from 7,208,000 in July, down 5.5% YoY. (In 2024 average Job Openings was 7,800,000).

 

Inflation Economic Data Released during October and November 2025

The BLS published delayed PPI data for September, giving us another glimpse into the Inflation picture. The September PPI data shows Inflation still running in the 2.7% to 3.0% range – well above the 2.0% target. The PPI increase in September was primarily due to higher energy and food prices. Hopefully, next month we will get a regular schedule of data that will give a better picture of Inflation. (October CPI data wasn’t published, so the last data point we have is for September CPI, which was published in October)

• September CPI rose 0.3%, up 3.0% YoY   |  Core CPI rose 0.2%, up 3.0% YoY
• September PPI rose 0.3%, up 2.7% YoY   |  Core PPI rose 0.1%, up 2.9% YoY
• PCE – Delayed                                             |  Core PCE – Delayed

 

GDP Economic Data Released during November 2025

Since the BEA did not publish any GDP data, we can look at alternative sources. GDPNOW (the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta) estimates the US GDP is growing at a 3.9% rate. The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) estimates the US Economy will grow at a 2.0% pace in 2025. That gives us a wide range for 2025 GDP Growth. The last solid GDP data from the BEA shows the Economy growing at 2.1% YoY through the 2nd quarter of 2025.

 

Consumer Economic Data Released during November 2025

Consumer Confidence declined sharply in November, after a gradual decline over the last few months. Why are Consumers so gloomy? Several issues are weighing on their minds. The most prominent issue is Inflation because they are reminded of it every time they visit the grocery store. Combine that with a weakening Labor Market and rising consumer debt, and it can make anyone a little sullen. On the bright side, the stock market is hovering at record highs, and Household Balance sheets are healthy, so the Wealth Effect should make them feel better. Regardless of the gloomy attitude, Consumers continue to spend. Retail Sales is up 4.3% in the last 12 months and people are still going out. Spending at bars and restaurants is up 6.7% YoY.

• Consumer Confidence Index fell 7.1% in November to 88.7 from a revised 95.5 in October.
• Retail Sales rose 0.2% in September, up 4.3% YoY.
• Personal Income – Delayed
• Personal Spending – Delayed
• Personal Savings Rate – Delayed

 

Energy, International, and Things You May Have Missed

• West Texas Intermediate Crude fell to $59/Barrel (Nov 28) from $61/Barrel (Oct 31).
• North Sea Brent Crude fell to $62/Barrel (Nov 28) from $65/Barrel (Oct 31).
• Gasoline (Wholesale Futures) fell to $1.82/Gal from $1.97/Gal (Oct 31).
• Natural Gas rose to $4.85/MMBtu (Nov 28) from $4.12/MMBtu (Oct 31).
• New Conforming Loan Limits for 2026: 1 unit = $832,750 and $1,249,125 for High-Cost areas.
• The US government reopened after being shut down from October 1 to November 12, 2025.

 

The Mortgage Economic Review is a concise summary of Key Economic Data that influences the Mortgage and Housing Markets. It’s a quick read that keeps busy Professionals updated on important Economic Information. Feel free to share this with colleagues in the Mortgage, Housing, Finance, and Banking business. To have the Mortgage Economic Review emailed to you each month, click here.

 

Discover New Lending Opportunities at MortgageElements.com, where you can explore over 300 TPO Wholesale and Correspondent Mortgage Lenders from one website, including:

• Non-QM, Non-Prime, & Hard Money
• Agency: Conventional, FHA, VA, & USDA
• 2nd & Equity Lines
• Reverse
• Commercial
• Warehouse
• Construction, Rehab, 203K, Fix n Flip

 

Use the Mortgage Periodic Table to research Mortgage Products and connect with TPO Account Executives. It costs nothing to use. It is one of the industry’s largest databases of TPO Mortgage Lenders.

Mark Paoletti, MortgageElements.com

 

This Economic Review is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, financial, or mortgage advice. The information is gathered from sources believed to be credible and may be opinion-based and editorial in nature. Mortgage Elements Inc does not guarantee or warrant its accuracy or completeness, and there is no guarantee it is without errors. This newsletter is primarily intended for use by Housing and Finance Professionals, but it can be useful for anyone interested in Economics. This newsletter is not an advertisement to extend credit or solicit mortgage originations. © Copyright 2025 Mark Paoletti, Mortgage Elements Inc., All Rights Reserved.